Don’t Kick the Dog. Posted on June 27, 2015 #ag #farming, #farmers

This is a re-post from  sellis1994’s Blog

 

Don’t Kick the Dog

Sitting here on a rainy Saturday morning feeling blessed for having a good start to the growing season. Reading about the destruction of yield in the Midwest I felt like I could add a few lessons I have learned from living through a drought every 3-4 years of my farming life.

First: Breath… Easier said then done, but realize: you have no control, you can’t make it stop raining. Or start raining, so freaking out won’t help you get through it.  You can’t kick your dog and snap at your wife but once or twice.  Then they’ll be like:  I don’t need this crap…..and see whether the neighbor is in a good mood.   Breathe and relax.  A clear mind serves you more than anger ever will.

Second:  Calculate

Get out the pencil or the calculator… You must figure how much income you can reasonably generate with crops + insurance.   This is what you will have, more or less.. And this year for some of you it is less.. But know what your pie is so you can figure the best way to slice it.  If you have your aph, your %coverage, and price; then you have a hard figure as minimum income..this number is important.   Then: add up your expenses. All of them. Even beer and ice cream sandwiches.  You got to know where you stand…   Some of you have last years crop and will get by this year. Still you need to know the deficit you are creating to know that it will smack your ass next spring.
So now you have a rough idea of where and how much you are short…

Prioritize.

Yep, somebody won’t get paid on time. Don’t let that be the landlord….they MUST be paid, without land no one can do this thing that we do.

Then, after they are straight; figure out who is due when, and who can be worked with. If you have a bill due in November that needs you to wait for crop insurance check, don’t make them call you in December… Go to them in September and say: This is the deal, I will pay you. It will just be when the paperwork is straight..  This helps them breathe.  And not kick their dog.  And another thing:  Pay something!!!

You have an 80k bill?  Send 5k. Someone seeing you trying will work with you better than someone assuming they will get stiffed and assume you are  paying for pretty green equipment.

Stop Digging

Don’t buy anything else that isn’t a must have.  Or can generate income.. Fix the combine one more year. Call shop and rebuild the planter..  Just stop living like lotto queens that we were in 2011-12-13.  Everything can’t be new…  (Note to self. “Read this daily”)

If all this doesn’t work.  Sell something

Excess equipment.   Excess vehicles. A lot on the corner…

“Well I would never sell a lot of my farm.  It looks tacky…..”

Well sir. Your 160 acre block that has 10 acres carved off the far corner looks less tacky then the auction for the whole 160 if you don’t pay bills…

Some of you know more about this then I.  Some of you have old money and can handle a hiccup. But I suspect many have lived life, paid bills, and not seen a year with poor crops and poor prices happening at the same time. Then maybe you get one idea (from this post) that helps you get through this with your sanity, dog and wife intact…..not necessarily in that order.

 

Corn Levels and Analysis.. (for my farmer gang #fg) $ZC_f #ag

by Rasool Cunningham
Trading Editor
Philadelphia, PA (DYDD)

I know nothing of the seasonal swings of corn growing, nor do I know how this year’s crop is turning out. I have farmer friends who are in the thick of things; any questions of that nature should be directed to them. He’s a cool dude, if you ask him right he’ll probably tell you whatever he knows of it, or he’ll ask someone he knows that may know what you want to know.

I’m just looking at the technicals of what just happened with the price of corn today! I don’t even know if it went limit up, as I was not watching this market. It doesn’t even matter. The price action today was signaling a breakout. Here’s how $ZC_f (corn futures contract zcn5) looks on a daily chart:

2015-06-25_1939

That’s what strong price action looks like. Notice the close on the highs! I drew a Fib retracement I think is useful; here that is:

2015-06-25_2108

$387 looks like a target. There’s no need to chase this if you’re not already in it. I don’t think it will run far away from $380 without a rest in between. That rest could be brief, and it could come fast. The $372 area looks like a good place to start nibbling on the long side. But the best stop area looks to be below $361, though, so you want to buy as close to $361.80 as possible.  Taking into account that $387 is a first target one would want the lowest price without it looking like we’re catching a falling knife. My stop would need to be in the high$350’s, so I would want an average price in the $360’s.

That’s the best cased scenario. If price holds $372 a buy in the mid $370’s could make sense. I’ll be tweeting about the action later today so check me out here if you want, or have any questions. It’s impossible to say what the future holds for prices in any fairly free market. What we do know is a weak dollar is need for corn’s price to go straight up from here. Don’t see a free fall in the dollar so far, so.. We gotta expect corn’s price to rest a little.

Corn is priced in dollars so there is always a push-pull effect going on between the price (value)  of corn and the value (price) of the dollar. Yet, there are special situations where both can go up at the same time. This Greece situation is a great example pointing out how inflation can be exported or imported. A #Grexit could be driving the price of corn and grains up by the thought of them printing a lot of Drachmas for food. Or maybe people there are hiding their money here in hard assets on a market they know (or are fairly sure) will be liquid.

I’m a speculator, so I speculate…

For all I know corn crops could be getting counted right now and coming up short of expectations. I’ll be asking my farmer friends this same question. Ask your farmer friends. If you don’t have any farmer friends, make some. From my experience, which is forty years of living in the north east part of America where there are a lot of farms and farmers, and also attended many, many  farmers markets (ha!) Farmers for the most part, are pretty cool.

Like I said, I have farmer friends on twitter who teach me stuff all the time.

I’ll have to add to this post as price progresses, but right now it looks like waiting for a price rest is the best course of action. Buying weakness under $380 down as close to $361 as possible with a first target at $387, second target of $396.76, and final target $411.75 gives us a good risk reward profile if our stop is around $358. As I end this post price is slumping a little. No need to rush or chase, but judging from the price action today the direction seems higher from here.  I hope this post and these are helpful! Thanks for reading!

Happy hunting traders! And make a farmer friend!

Using Fib Retracements/ Extensions To get Targets, and Trend Lines To Trade $USDCAD…

by Rasool Cunningham
Trading Editor
Philadelphia, PA (DYDD)

Fibonacci extensions on smaller time frames are a great way to come up with price targets and places to put stops. In combination with trend line analysis and any other technical analysis you use, these tools are powerful. I recently tweeted about a trend line on a short term USD/CAD chart:

2015-06-24_0746

That trend line lead to a good trade if you knew when to take profits. Price broke above the trend line signaling a buy. The sell signal is a different story. I tweet a lot of info on trade entries, but I don’t share a lot about the process of coming up with good exits, or targets. I feel like that’s my bread and butter. I feel like if I share that I should get compensated for the hard lessons it took to learn and refine my strategy. But fuck that, because some times I feel like I’m getting people into trades but not getting them out. I feel like most of my twitter followers are traders, so they know when to exit. They (you!) really should have a system in place as I’m never giving investment advice in my tweeting or writing. But we know people do foolish things when they begin trading. We all have done stupid things learning to trade.

So here’s my Fib target system in a nut shell; it’s very simple. Here’s USD/CAD on an hourly chart with the trend line and price breakout:

2015-06-24_0739

All I did was draw a Fib retracement on the most recent action that the trend line put a halt to. This is how you draw a Fib retracement when looking for price support. Here’s how it looks on the chart:

2015-06-24_0740

Let’s zoom in a little so you can see my start and ending points clearer:

2015-06-24_0801

I started at the top and went from right to left ending at the bottom. Notice how I didn’t end at the lows. Let’s zoom in more because this is important:

2015-06-24_0806

You must use important, recent price action to anchor your Fibonacci retracements because that’s where price has decided to explode. I usually like to use a closes or opens instead of a wick, or high spike on a bar. The starting point is just as important, so let’s look closer at that now:

2015-06-24_0809

Notice I did use the high point or wick in the bar I used for my starting point. Sometimes price moves in a way where it’s better to use the high instead of the open or close. Usually, if a lot of bar spikes (marked by dots above) touch the line, you can use the high from the last up bar or down bar, depending on which direction the move is headed that you’re measuring. But you have to use the last bar in the move  most times. The bar I used was the last bar that prices went up strongly.

Ok, we have the Fib drawn, now what? We wait for a price break out above our trend line. Price did just that not long after my tweet. It ran up all night and spiked out on a 161.8% extension line of our Fib! Here’s how it looked on the chart:

2015-06-24_0801_001

A take profit stop like 10 pips below that 161.8% Fib at 1.23805 would have been a perfect trade if you bought the breakout around 1.22903.

Using Fibs and trend lines to trade price can be a powerful tool in a traders tool box. Price is tricky, though. It doesn’t always happen like this. On smaller time frames it seems to work better. If you look at it, it gives you a natural target. But it get’s even deeper, in that; you can check the solidness of your target with measured moves. If you draw a line measuring the moves we used to draw the Fib, and the move we traded, top to bottom; they should be the same length. Here’s what I mean:

2015-06-24_0843

This is the same price action we’ve been looking at in this whole post. I measured the first move with a trend line from top to bottom like this:

2015-06-24_0840

Duplicated that line, dragged the duplicate up to the next move putting the top at the top, and the bottom at the bottom. It looked like this:

2015-06-24_0841

Not exactly the same, but damn close. I think if I moved it to the exact low and high it would be exact. Either way, you can see the power of getting to know price. There are a million price patterns and tools to measure them, but not many are as simple as this. The key is getting to know price. If we use price as a guide we will rarely go wrong. For sure, price gives false signals. That’s where position size and risk control come in. That’s for another post, though. I hope this is helpful, and if anyone has any questions my twitter DM’s are open. Ask away! Thanks for reading!

Happy Hunting traders!

There’s a 90 Year old Dude Who’s Been Writing About Markets for 57 years.. And Counting. Wow.

by Rasool Cunningham
Trading Editor
Philadelphia, PA (DYDD)

I recently got on a Dow Theory kick after the Dow Transports index started under-performing the broader market.  It lead me to a guy named Richard Russell who has a market service called: Dow Theory Letters. 2015-06-12_0541 He started writing them in 1958, around the time he became the leading Dow Theorist. The guy is 90 years old and still puts something out on the markets everyday! (I’m ashamed of myself for not writing more posts, so I’m writing this post out of guilt, I’m sure.)  I signed up for a free trial and I’m blown away by the sharpness of this guys brain, still! He has others who write there, and their stuff is good, but I’ve went through the archive, and to me, he’s still the best writer there.

Everyone should, at the very least, go there and sign up for the free trial and tell me; is it me, or is this guy a hell of a role model?! I want to be Richard Russell when I grow up. I’ve been trying to start a service here on DYDD for some time now. My latest attempt is starting off a little rocky because I’m doing something wrong. I’m still looking at it as work. I have enough market thoughts running through my head, yet I don’t post every single day. Some days I just stare at the charts with a million thoughts going through my mind. If I get a good trade off I feel more inclined to post something. If I don’t get a good trade off, or get stopped out, I turn Bloomberg radio off, stare at the charts, and don’t feel like writing anything.

I’m not the best writer in the world.  But I’m not 90 years old either. After reading this guys stuff I feel out of my league. At the same time, I feel greatly inspired. I feel like if he can still post something every day (although he gets paid to do it, but he’s 90! Almost 91! And I’m sure doesn’t need the money, but still does it) so can I. I’m writing this post as a little free advertisement to pay homage, and ask the market writing Gods to make me like him. This is my offering to the market writing Gods, now: Please make me more like Richard Russell!

What a ‘Third Phase Climax’ in the Stock Market Looks Like.

by Rasool Cunningham
Trading Editor
Philadelphia, PA (DYDD)

Robert Rhea, the prominent Dow Theorist gave a first hand description of the 1929 top. Here it is:

“All the usual indications of inflation were present. Volume of trading was excessive and broker’s loans were making new peaks regularly – in fact, call money rates were so high that many corporations were finding it profitable to liquidate inventories and lend their cash equivalent to Wall Street at fantastic returns. Pool activities were being conducted on a disgraceful scale, and leading stocks were yielding less than the best grade bonds.

Worthless equities were being sky-rocketed without regard for intrinsic worth or earning power. The whole country appeared insane on the subject of stock speculation. Veteran traders look back at those months and wonder how they could have been caught in the inevitable crash. Bankers whose good sense might have saved the situation had speculators listened to them, were shouted down as destructionists, while other bankers, whose names will go down in history as ‘racketeers’ were praised as supermen.”

History won’t repeat itself because people have seen it before, so we avoid things that remind us of past mistakes. Mark twain famously said history won’t repeat, but it will rhyme. Where we are now seems to me to be rhyming with where we were in 1929. We even have the threat of the return of the dust bowels (area and length of the drought back then is a lot crazier than now, but it rhymes.)  Let’s look at some other things that rhyme:

  • Margin debt is at an all time high.
  • There are cab drivers that think they know the market as well as the pro’s (or better.)
  • Pointing out negative things about the market could get you labeled an Economic Doomsayer!
  • The top five IPO’s of 2015 have had an average first day pop of 134%. This is despite the fact that NONE had positive earnings growth last year. The biggest first day pop, 267%, came in $SHAK, which has -98.45% earnings growth last year. Not saying $SHAK is worthless, but it’s clear that earnings growth didn’t determine the demand for the stock, speculation did.
  • Instead of using all that cash on $AAPL’s balance sheet to build up their business, or buy other great bushiness, or build schools, or infrastructure: Apple Is The new PIMCO and Tim Cook Is The New Bond King.
  • The 30 year U.S. Treasury bond yield is 3.21 right now. The Dow Industrial thirty’s average dividend yield is 2.72

None of this means stocks will crash tomorrow. What it does say is that this market has all the earmarks of a Third Phase Climax market top. What’s a Third Phase Climax market top? Here’s how Robert Rhea described the three phases of a Bull Market:

“There are three phases of a bull market: the first phase is represented by reviving confidence in the future of business; the second is the response of stock prices to the known improvement in corporation earnings, and the third is the period when speculation is rampant and (stock price) inflation apparent – a period when stocks are advanced on hopes and expectations.”

He also said the he would sell if the market had these traits, adding that he wouldn’t wait for the Dow averages to confirm an actual bearish signal because once the bear signal came stocks would often drop so fast that it was impossible to even get good quotes on stocks, let alone sell them.

 

A Dow Theory Crash Course.

by Rasool Cunningham
Chief Trading Editor
Philadelphia, PA (DYDD)

The market is always to be considered as having three movements, all going on at the same time. The first is the narrow movement from day to day. The second is the short swing, running from two weeks to a month or more; the third is the main movement, covering at least four years in its duration.

That’s from a Wall Street Journal editorial published on December 19, 1900. The time frames Dow gave were specific for his time because time expands and contracts along with price. (As we’ll be learning here on DYDD in the future. Einstein also proved time expands and contracts with his theory of relativity.) So we’ve seen what he describes as “main movements” last longer, and less time than he looked for back in 1900. But the basic tenant that the market has three movements going on at the same time is still valuable info today. Traders get caught on the wrong sides of these movements because they’re either unaware of them, or don’t know how to determine what price action is a part of, or determines what movement. If we don’t know what action is part of what movement we can’t assign value, or importance to the price movements that deserve high priority.

When you can’t prioritize price action you don’t know what price action to ignore or pay close attention to. This way you can’t use price action to maximize profits. If a “narrow move” or day to day move isn’t important, yet you place a lot of importance on it, that movement may lead you to take on more or less risk than you should. We all know a time or a million times we’ve placed too little or too much importance on a price move and paid for it. So how do we know what move is which, and what price action is more important? To paraphrase Dow, he tells us that the most important price actions are higher highs with higher lows, or lower highs with lower lows. He said this tells us what the “main movement” or trend is.

He called a correction a “Secondary Movement” or “short swing.”. So named to imply the move wasn’t as important as the “Main Movement.” Here’s an example of how we use these movements today. Below is a chart with a main move and several secondary moves. A trader would have been better off to hold for the gains from the main move than to try to take advantage of all the short swing secondary moves:

2015-06-01_2148

When we hear the phrase “Dow Theory” we think of the indices and index theory that Dow Transports should confirm any major directional movement in the Dow Industrials. But this is only the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface, Dow’s theory is time analysis on top of a trend following/ trend determination system. Since Dow never compiled his work into a system, much of the credit for what we now call Dow Theory should go to men with names we don’t hear anywhere near as mush as we hear Dow’s. Men like Samuel A. Nelson, William P. Hamilton, Robert Rhea, and Richard Russell. Men who delved into Dow’s work and put together a comprehensive system based on Dow’s market theories. Dow worked as a partner for a company named Goodbody, Glynn and Dow. They held a seat on the New York Stock Exchange from late 1885 to mid 1891. Long enough for Dow to get an upclose look at the market. But he started and ended, as a newspaper man from Connecticut. He came to New York as a financial reporter. In this work he met a guy named Edward D. Jones. They went on to found Dow, Jones and Company; they published the Wall Street journal, and the rest is history.

The simplicity and staying power of what Dow left is awe inspiring. He said If you’re trading in a bull market a trader should buy on pull backs, and If trading a bear market we should sell on up moves.He said traders should scale into positions in case price goes against them, or takes longer than expected to gain value. He defined what a trend is with the phrase higher highs and higher lows or vise-versa. The old trading axiom “cut losses early and let profits run” comes from Dow. These are things we still heavily use today, and can be found in every trading system known. That’s a big deal to me. A big enough deal to revisit he and his disciples’ original work as much as possible.

It’s impossible to to even outline all the things Dow, and those who expounded on his theory have left us in one or two post. Luckily for you traders, I started a new service today where I’ll be pouring  the rest of my interpretations and applications of this timeless knowledge in a series called: A Dow Theory Crash Course. 

Each one will be titled A Dow Theory Crash Course and be numbered; should be easy to find once they start posting.  I’ll apply everything to current markets with easy to grasp examples and visuals. There will be lots and lots of visuals (so if you think there’s a such thing as too many pictures in a blog post, this probably isn’t for you.) I think a picture says a thousand words, so, they save us (me) time; they help us hack the learning curve. So get the June 2015 password here and check them out as they post!

Thanks for reading traders, and happy hunting!

 

Old School Stock Valuation Tools, Gann, Fibonacci, and Elliot; Plus, a new DYDD Journey.

by Rasool Cunningham
Chief Trading Editor
Philadelphia, PA (DYDD)

After going up for six years in the face of constant ZeroHedge articles, and every bear in the woods rooting against it, this stock market seems invincible. I get that, but we know stock markets aren’t invincible, don’t we? We know what happens when people start thinking stocks are invincible… don’t we? Maybe this time is different? Maybe all these metrics saying stocks are overvalued are wrong. Maybe Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen is wrong. Maybe I am wrong. There’s a lot of information out there. A lot of “metrics” and “data points.” The thought is some of this stuff works sometimes because: “even a broke clock is right twice a day. With all these broken clocks they’re bound to be right once in a while.” Well, what’s not a broken clock are the traditional metrics used for stock valuation. Looking at some, one could conclude that stocks are overvalued. Take Warren Buffett’s favorite stock market valuation tool: The Market cap to GDP ratio. Dshort wrote about this on May 1st. It says stocks are overvalued. Another great stock guy, Peter Lynch says this about stock valuation:

2015-05-10_0625

Long term bonds currently yield 2.93%. The $SPX dividend is now yielding 1.93. I didn’t need to do the math to see that this indicator says stocks are overvalued. But I did the math anyway, and it said long term bond yields exceeded the $SPX yield by 33%. More than five times Mr. Lynch’s caution threshold. But that’s ok, It points to tremendous opportunities.

In the coming days, months, years I’ll be trying to capitalize on these tremendous opportunities. First and foremost, with my own trading of currency markets. But since no market trades in a bubble, and all other markets effect, and are effected by the currency markets; I analyze stock futures, leading stocks, bonds, gold, oil, and nearly anything with a price. I’m doing the work anyway, I mine as well try to capitalize on this work any way possible. I think I’ve found a way. This isn’t new for me. I’ve failed in past attempts to capitalize on my analysis. I think I failed because I wasn’t offering enough value. Maybe I was too one-sided, or just not enough dimensions.

I’m a price guy. So nearly all my analysis is price based. We know price, time, and volume form the stock technical analysis bedrock. For a truly comprehensive approach you need a solid understanding of all three. I’m proficient in volume analysis (although if I come across a good volume heavy analyst I’ll try to recruit her to add to what we’re doing here.) But I’m lacking in the time department. I understand the basic concept, but I don’t know how to apply the best available tools for time analysis, which I think are Elliot Wave theory and Gann theory. I have a new friend who is a time analyst who is talented in the application of these tools. I think we make a good team. So, along that “capitalizing on opportunity” theme:

Starting today she and I are offering a monthly subscription service here on DYDD. June 2015 is free. 

It will consist of her full understanding of Elliot Wave and Gann theory. She will build an archive of lessons from her understanding. I will expound on the lessons, as well as apply my price, volume and fundamental analysis to her time analysis. She has a lot to offer. I think I have a lot to offer also. So we’re combining forces. It will be a simple password protected post.

Every month the password will change. Which means you’ll have to tell your browser to remember each monthly password. For that inconvenience you’ll get Pauline’s posts, lessons, and all I have. Including info like what you see above with the Buffett and Lynch valuation insights, plus a lot more. Fx trades, levels, and risk reward profiles all given in an easy to understand manner and format. Also:

  • A full archive of my understanding of Fibonacci retracement theory.
  • A full archive of my understanding of price theory and index theory.
  • A full archive of my understanding of Soros’s Reflexivity/ Fallibility theory.

I’ve been studying the markets very hard for more than eight years now. I’ve touched on a lot of things along the way. Hours and hours of pouring over books digging diamonds out of the history of everything from politics, to markets, to technical analysis. Up until now I’ve been giving away my thoughts on current events in the markets, but holding back the most precious info; using it to trade. I’m not a big enough trader to take full advantage of this precious info/ skill. If I were I wouldn’t be offering anything. This is going to be a lot of work for Pauline and I. She’s been trying to recruit people to help her with the writing. She asked people who have bought her book and have been in contact with her. People who know the system and can do the writing easier. One said no, another never got back to her. It’s a lot of work. But I enjoy sharing and helping people. I also understand Pauline when she says she’s done too much work to just give it away. I’ve done enough work to say the same. So we will charge something. But the first month is free. June 2015 is free and will be free forever. Instead of the first month being free for any new sub, June 2015 will be the only free month.

Pauline has been asked to present a webinar for the IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysts)

2015-06-01_1721

She’s so busy preparing for that she couldn’t get started on the archive in a meaningful way. So this month will start off with me and my Lessons. I will begin posting tonight. June 2015’s password is: vision9538 

 

That will be the password for any password protected post you see on this site with a June 2015 date on it. Pricing details will be forth coming. First, I want to see and show how much value one month has in it. My first post will be about drawing Fibinacci retracements and using short term trend lines to trade fibs. I have a great example in the price action of the USD/JPY pair. My twitter DM’s are open for any comments or questions regarding anything from my or Pauline’s future posts. If you’re not on twitter, sign-up, because I will not be checking the comments on posts here. Twitter has more functionality. I think that makes it more inducive to building a community. That’s what we’re trying to do here: Build a community of profitable traders by offering actionable info and educational info. So if you don’t know anything about trading you can come here and hack the learning curve. If you’re a long time trader that needs a new system or a refresher you can come here and get your fix. We’re trying to build a place where you can get info and perspectives that you can’t find anywhere else delivered in a simple, straightforward way. Time will tell if we succeed or fail. The journey should be interesting to say the least! We hope you will join us!

Thanks in advance!

Pure Technical: Are Elliot Wave & Gann Signals Pointing to an Emerging Bull Market in Gold? $YG_f #gold #trading #nerd #alert #math

by Rasool Cunningham
Chief Trading Editor
Philadelphia, PA (DYDD)

This is a re-post from Pauline Novak-Reichs facebook page, and a sample of what she’s offering starting June 1st here on DYDD. It’s pure technical. She doesn’t care about fundamentals. I love her machine like process. She’s my polar opposite. I care a lot about fundamentals. I’m a technical guy, but I’m a “price guy”, she’s a “time gal.” Not in this post, but she said “Price is a function of time, and time is a function of price.” I couldn’t agree more. But I lean more toward the price side, meaning I understand price more than time. As you will see below, she barely mentions price. Short, succinct, and valuable to people who understand Elliot wave theory and Gann theory. Which aren’t a lot of people relative to the amount of people who are like me, and love price. That’s because price is easier. Time is more time consuming and math intense. For that reason lots of people shun it, and even ridicule it out of hate of what they don’t understand. But that’s cool. I think that’s an opportunity for my girl Pauline to teach us all. She tells me Elliot and Gann are just time representations of the Fibancci concept. If you know me you know I’m also a “Fibonacci guy,” so I’m really looking forward to learning more about time analysis.

Anyway, Check her out, and stay on the lookout for more details on the upcoming Pauline Posts. Thanks!

GOLD – an emerging bull market:

The following is based on a chart I discovered at:
http://www.zerohedge.com/…/charting-price-gold-all-way-back….

The period of 1492— 2001 formed the largest bear market’s Grandsupercycle known in history.

• Apr. 4, 2001 — Mar. 17, 2008, minor wave 1 of intermediate (i) of primary [I]
= 2539cd (2555 north-east)
• Mar. 17, 2008 — Nov. 19, 2008, wave 2 of (i) of [I] = 248cd (249 south)

• Nov. 19, 2008 — Sep. 5, 2011, wave 3 of (i) of [I] = 1020cd (1025 south-east)
• Total calendar time Apr. 4, 2001 — Sep. 5, 2011, = 3806 cd (3814 south) =
360º with Nov. 19, 2008 and 180º with Apr. 4, 2001
End of minor wave 3 of intermediate (i) of primary [I]
(Incomplete bull market phase)
• Sep. 5, 2011 — Jul. 17, 2012 = 316cd south
Waves 5 of 1 and 5 of c terminate at 360º
• Jul. 17, 2012 — Oct. 4, 2012 = 77cd north = 180º
• Oct. 4, 2012 — May 10, 2015 = 949cd (946 NC) = 360º
• Sep. 5, 2011 — May 10, 2015, total calendar time = 1280 (1279 South)
End of wave 5 of (a) of [I]

• Upward wave 1 of (b) of [I] is currently underway

2015-05-30_0808

Do Your Due Diligence

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